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The Global Achievement Gap
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Young Adult Titles Available Now. Order Your Copies Today! Authors Home. In recent years, integrated mitigation studies have improved the characterizations of mitigation pathways. However, limitations remain, as climate damages, avoided impacts, or societal co-benefits of the modelled transformations remain largely unaccounted for, while concurrent rapid technological changes, behavioural aspects, and uncertainties about input data present continuous challenges. Pathways consistent with 1. However, lack of global cooperation, lack of governance of the required energy and land transformation, and increases in resource-intensive consumption are key impediments to achieving 1.
Governance challenges have been related to scenarios with high inequality and high population growth in the 1.
Under emissions in line with current pledges under the Paris Agreement known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs , global warming is expected to surpass 1. This increased action would need to achieve net zero CO 2 emissions in less than 15 years. Even if this is achieved, temperatures would only be expected to remain below the 1. Limiting warming to 1. Available pathways that aim for no or limited less than 0. Pathways that aim for limiting warming to 1.
In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1. Such mitigation pathways are characterized by energy-demand reductions, decarbonization of electricity and other fuels, electrification of energy end use, deep reductions in agricultural emissions, and some form of CDR with carbon storage on land or sequestration in geological reservoirs.
Low energy demand and low demand for land- and GHG-intensive consumption goods facilitate limiting warming to as close as possible to 1. Policies reflecting a high price on emissions are necessary in models to achieve cost-effective 1. Other things being equal, modelling studies suggest the global average discounted marginal abatement costs for limiting warming to 1.
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Carbon pricing can be imposed directly or implicitly by regulatory policies. Policy instruments, like technology policies or performance standards, can complement explicit carbon pricing in specific areas. Additional annual average energy-related investments for the period to in pathways limiting warming to 1. Average annual investment in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency are upscaled by roughly a factor of six range of factor of 4 to 10 by compared to , overtaking fossil investments globally by around medium confidence.
Uncertainties and strategic mitigation portfolio choices affect the magnitude and focus of required investments.
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Mitigation requirements can be quantified using carbon budget approaches that relate cumulative CO 2 emissions to global mean temperature increase. Robust physical understanding underpins this relationship, but uncertainties become increasingly relevant as a specific temperature limit is approached. These uncertainties relate to the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions TCRE , non-CO 2 emissions, radiative forcing and response, potential additional Earth system feedbacks such as permafrost thawing , and historical emissions and temperature. Cumulative CO 2 emissions are kept within a budget by reducing global annual CO 2 emissions to net zero.
This assessment suggests a remaining budget of about GtCO 2 for a two-thirds chance of limiting warming to 1. The remaining carbon budget is defined here as cumulative CO 2 emissions from the start of until the time of net zero global emissions for global warming defined as a change in global near-surface air temperatures. Remaining budgets applicable to would be approximately GtCO 2 lower than this to account for permafrost thawing and potential methane release from wetlands in the future, and more thereafter.
Staying within a remaining carbon budget of GtCO 2 implies that CO 2 emissions reach carbon neutrality in about 30 years, reduced to 20 years for a GtCO 2 remaining carbon budget high confidence.
If emissions do not start declining in the next decade, the point of carbon neutrality would need to be reached at least two decades earlier to remain within the same carbon budget. Non- CO 2 emissions contribute to peak warming and thus affect the remaining carbon budget. The evolution of methane and sulphur dioxide emissions strongly influences the chances of limiting warming to 1.
In the near-term, a weakening of aerosol cooling would add to future warming, but can be tempered by reductions in methane emissions high confidence.
Uncertainty in radiative forcing estimates particularly aerosol affects carbon budgets and the certainty of pathway categorizations. Some non-CO 2 forcers are emitted alongside CO 2 , particularly in the energy and transport sectors, and can be largely addressed through CO 2 mitigation. Others require specific measures, for example, to target agricultural nitrous oxide N 2 O and methane CH 4 , some sources of black carbon, or hydrofluorocarbons high confidence.
Emissions of N 2 O and NH 3 increase in some pathways with strongly increased bioenergy demand. All analysed pathways limiting warming to 1. The longer the delay in reducing CO 2 emissions towards zero, the larger the likelihood of exceeding 1. The faster reduction of net CO 2 emissions in 1. Limitations on the speed, scale and societal acceptability of CDR deployment also limit the conceivable extent of temperature overshoot.
Limits to our understanding of how the carbon cycle responds to net negative emissions increase the uncertainty about the effectiveness of CDR to decline temperatures after a peak. CDR deployed at scale is unproven, and reliance on such technology is a major risk in the ability to limit warming to 1. CDR is needed less in pathways with particularly strong emphasis on energy efficiency and low demand.
The scale and type of CDR deployment varies widely across 1.
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Some pathways rely more on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage BECCS , while others rely more on afforestation, which are the two CDR methods most often included in integrated pathways. Trade-offs with other sustainability objectives occur predominantly through increased land, energy, water and investment demand. Bioenergy use is substantial in 1. The share of primary energy from renewables increases while coal usage decreases across pathways limiting warming to 1.
The overall deployment of CCS varies widely across 1. These ranges reflect both uncertainties in technological development and strategic mitigation portfolio choices.
Pathways with higher chances of holding warming to below 1. Transitions in global and regional land use are found in all pathways limiting global warming to 1. Pathways that limit global warming to 1. Such large transitions pose profound challenges for sustainable management of the various demands on land for human settlements, food, livestock feed, fibre, bioenergy, carbon storage, biodiversity and other ecosystem services high confidence. Demand-side measures are key elements of 1. Lifestyle choices lowering energy demand and the land- and GHG-intensity of food consumption can further support achievement of 1.
By and , all end-use sectors including building, transport, and industry show marked energy demand reductions in modelled 1. Sectoral models support the scale of these reductions. Choices about mitigation portfolios for limiting warming to 1. In particular, demand-side and efficiency measures, and lifestyle choices that limit energy, resource, and GHG-intensive food demand support sustainable development medium confidence.
However, specific mitigation measures, such as bioenergy, may result in trade-offs that require consideration. Why is it necessary and even vital to maintain the global temperature increase below 1. Adaptation will be less difficult. Our world will suffer less negative impacts on intensity and frequency of extreme events, on resources, ecosystems, biodiversity, food security, cities, tourism, and carbon removal. This chapter builds on findings of AR5 and assesses new scientific evidence of changes in the climate system and the associated impacts on natural and human systems, with a specific focus on the magnitude and pattern of risks linked for global warming of 1.
Chapter 3 explores observed impacts and projected risks to a range of natural and human systems, with a focus on how risk levels change from 1. The chapter also revisits major categories of risk Reasons for Concern, RFC based on the assessment of new knowledge that has become available since AR5.
The global climate has changed relative to the pre-industrial period, and there are multiple lines of evidence that these changes have had impacts on organisms and ecosystems, as well as on human systems and well-being high confidence. The increase in global mean surface temperature GMST , which reached 0. Human-induced global warming has already caused multiple observed changes in the climate system high confidence.
Changes include increases in both land and ocean temperatures, as well as more frequent heatwaves in most land regions high confidence. There is also high confidence global warming has resulted in an increase in the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves.